Market analysis and forecast from 2018 to 2023
Renewables will continue their expansion in the next five years, covering 40% of global energy consumption growth, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s Renewables 2018 market analysis and forecast report. Their use continues to increase most rapidly in the electricity sector, and will account for almost a third of total world electricity generation in 2023. Because of weaker policy support and additional barriers to deployment, renewables use expands far more slowly in the transport and heat sectors.
Geothermal capacity is set to grow 28%, or 4 GW, to reach just over 17 GW by 2023 as projects in nearly 30 countries come online. 70% of this growth is in developing countries and emerging economies. The Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) has the largest growth, at 2 GW, over the forecast period. Indonesia’s expansion is the strongest, propelled by abundant geothermal resource availability and a strong project pipeline in the construction phase supported by government policies. Kenya, the Philippines, and Turkey follow, responsible for 30% of additions.
Although pre-development risks are still an important barrier to securing financing for geothermal projects, exploration and construction of facilities in Latin American and Caribbean countries is expected to take off because geothermal technology generates stable, CO2 emissions-free baseload power.
Geothermal could grow by an additional 20%, or 900 MW, provided faster commissioning of the projects, mainly in emerging economies. Indonesia could deliver half of the potential growth while Kenya could add an estimated 180 MW as both countries advance in exploitation of their vast geothermal resources. China, Philippines and Turkey each could add around 70 MW of additional geothermal capacity while smaller additions could be seen coming online in Ethiopia and France.
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