USA: EIA Forecasts 52 GW Global Geothermal Energy by 2040

International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEA)

The International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2040. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2016 are consistent with those published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015). IEO2016 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector.

In the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case, world net electricity generation increases 69% by 2040, from 21.6 trillion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2012 to 25.8 trillion kWh in 2020 and 36.5 trillion kWh in 2040. Electricity is the world’s fastest-growing form of end-use energy consumption, as it has been for many decades. Power systems have continued to evolve from isolated, small grids to integrated national markets and even international markets.

Total generation from renewable resources increases by 2.9%/year, as the renewable share of world electricity generation grows from 22% in 2012 to 29% in 2040. Generation from nonhydropower renewables is the predominant source of the increase, rising by an average of 5.7%/year and outpacing increases in natural gas (2.7%/year), nuclear (2.4%/year), and coal (0.8%/year), even without taking into account the growth in renewable generation anticipated under the Clean Power Plan in the United States.

In the reference case scenario the EIA forecasts geothermal capacity to grow from the current 10 GW to 22 GW in 2020, 41 GW in 2030 and 52 GW by 2040 - an average of 5.9% growth per year.

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