USA:

DOE Estimates Annual 5.5% Growth in Geothermal Energy to 2040 (USEIA)

Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) focus on the factors expected to shape U.S. energy markets through 2040. The projections provide a basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and serve as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, and regulations, as well as the potential role of advanced technologies.

Rising long-term natural gas prices, the high capital costs of new coal and nuclear generation capacity, state-level policies, and cost reductions for renewable generation in a market characterized by relatively slow electricity demand growth favor increased use of renewables.

Renewable electricity generation in the AEO2015 Reference case increases by 72% from 2013 to 2040, accounting for more than one-third of new generation capacity. The renewable share of total generation grows from 13% in 2013 to 18% in 2040.

Geothermal generation grows at an average annual rate of about 5.5% over the projection period, but because geothermal resources are concentrated geographically, the growth is limited to the western United States. The report estimates that geothermal electricity generation will increase from 16.88 billion kilowatthours in 2015 to 69.56 billion kilowatthours in 2040.

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