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| Renewable energy potential for 2050 in EJ/year by energy source (Greenpeace) |
In its latest Energy [R]evolution scenario, Greenpeace gives an optimistic outlook for renewables' ability to diminish the risks of climate change from CO2 emissions. While the economic crisis has driven down profits, renewables are now 'directly competitive with heavily subsidized conventional generation in an increasing number of markets,' the report states. The authors now argue for a 'transformation', to a flexible system based on a wide variety of renewables. While the shift will require new infrastructure and storage, there are 'no real technical or economic barriers' to be overcome. 'It is the lack of political will that is to blame'.
Within the renewables sector, a host of technologies will combine to replace traditional power installations: Photovoltaics, Concentrating solar power (CSP), Wind power, Biomass, Ocean energy, Hydropower, and last but not least, Geothermal.
Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and the improvement of low temperature power conversion could make it possible to produce geothermal electricity anywhere.
Assuming global growth of 15% per year up to 2020, adjusting to 12% up to 2030 and still 7% per year beyond 2030, a cost reduction potential of more than 60% by 2050 is feasible. For conventional geothermal, costs are expected to be $0.15/kWh-$0.09/kWh. Production costs for EGS are expected to fall to around $0.8/kWh, compared with the current $0.20-0.30/kWh.
