Kenya Power Report Q1 2012 - New Market Research Report (TransWorldNews)
Over the longer-term, the favoured form of renewable energy is geothermal, where potential is believed to be considerable.
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Kenya plans to significantly increase the amount of energy generated by geothermal facilities. The country is already Africa's largest producer of geothermal power thanks to its strategic position over shifting tectonic plates.
Over the next two to three years, the government plans to invest US$1.4bn in the construction of several new geothermal power plants with a total installed generation capacity of 280MW.
By 2030, Kenya hopes to be generating 5GW of power from geothermal power; that would put Kenya among world leaders in geothermal terms.
Kenya's power sector continues to introduce a more diversified energy-generation capability. Although Hydropower generation remains vulnerable to drought and variations in rainfall, additional hydro facilities are being developed in order to reduce the country's dependence on costly oil-fired capacity. Over the longer-term, the favoured form of renewable energy is geothermal, where potential is believed to be considerable. Meanwhile, coal-based generating schemes should provide medium-term electricity supply.
In the five years from 2011 to 2016, Kenya's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 8.4% to reach 10.7TWh. Driving this growth will be a 6.4% annual average increase in hydropower and a 10.2% annual average rise in the supply of renewables-based electricity. Meanwhile, oil-fired generation is expected to fall by over 23% per annum as hydro increases in availability. We expect coal-fired power to become commercially available in the latter part of our forecast.
In addition to investments in oil and gas exploration, and the development of new coal-fired and hydroelectric power stations, Kenya plans to significantly increase the amount of energy generated by geothermal facilities. The country is already Africa's largest producer of geothermal power thanks to its strategic position over shifting tectonic plates. Over the next two to three years, the government plans to invest US$1.4bn in the construction of several new geothermal power plants with a total installed generation capacity of 280MW. By 2030, Kenya hopes to be generating 5GW of power from geothermal power; that would put Kenya among world leaders in geothermal terms.
Electricity feed-in tariffs (FiTs in Kenya have increased interest in renewable energy sources in the country. Kenya's FiTs guarantee the price paid for electricity from renewable sources, ensuring these technologies are cost competitive with more conventional power plants, and therefore encouraging the development of renewable facilities in the country.
Kenyan net power consumption looks set to increase from 6.7TWh in 2011 to 8.5TWh by 2015, rising further to 11.1TWh by 2020. Underpinning the increase will be a steady rise in GDP, as well as sustained population growth. Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 4.4%, we forecast average annual growth of 5.1% between 2011 and 2020. Meanwhile, Kenya's population is expected to rise from the current level of 42.0mn to 46.5mn. During the period 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 6.08%, but slowing later in the decade to an average 5.32% in 2016- 2020.
Due to the expected rise in net energy generation over the next few years, Kenya's power supply shortfall should eventually fall. This trend has potential to provide the country with a net export capability later in the decade. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 15%
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