As a consequence, we estimate that increased renewable energy production will take shares only from coal. In our 65 percent RES scenario, coal produces 100 TWh of electricity in 2030; down from current levels at 250 TWh and down from 200 TWh in our 50 percent RES scenario.
Both the 50 percent and the 65 percent RES scenarios will be bad for coal. From a current level of 250 TWh per year, we expect coal power generation to drop to respectively 200 TWh and 100 TWh in the two scenarios.
In terms of GHG emissions, the effect will be significant. The German coal power plants let out around 250 Mt of CO2e in 2016. In our scenario, the remaining coal plants in 2030 are expected to emit 165 Mt. This means that Germany will overshoot its abatement target by 85 Mt in 2030, reaching a 62 percent reduction instead of the 55 percent that is decided politically.