Driven by expansion in Developing countries, global energy demand is set to increase by 35% over the period 2015–2040.
Other renewables – consisting mainly of wind, photovoltaic, solar and geothermal energy - is projected to be by far the fastest growing energy type. It is estimated to have an average annual growth rate of 6.8% over the forecast period. Its share is expected to increase by 4 percentage points by 2040. However, given that its current base in the global energy demand mix is rather low, at about 1.4%, the share of other renewables is still anticipated to be below 5.5% by 2040, despite its impressive growth.
Oil and coal are projected to grow at much lower rates of 0.6% and 0.4% p.a., respectively. Despite these relatively low rates, fossil fuels will retain a dominant role in the global energy mix, although with a declining overall share. Indeed, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix stood at 81% in 2015. This is set to decline to below 80% by 2020 and then drop further to under 78% by 2030. It is estimated to reach 74% by 2040. It should be noted, however, that oil and gas together are still expected to provide more than half of the world's energy needs over the forecast period, with their combined share relatively stable between 52–53%.
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