Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (EIA)
This paper presents average values of levelized costs for generating technologies entering service in 2018, 2022, and 2040 as represented in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) Reference case.
As the best, least-cost resources are exploited, development will be forced into less favorable areas, potentially resulting in higher development costs, higher costs to access transmission, or access to lower-performing resources. Changes in the value of generation are a function of load growth.
However, renewables such as wind and solar that may show strong daily or seasonal generation patterns may see significant reductions in the value of their generation as these specific generation periods become more saturated with generation and new generation must compete with lower-cost options on the dispatch merit order.
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