Deep declines in wind, solar and battery technology costs will result in a grid nearly half-powered by the two fast-growing renewable energy sources by 2050, according to the latest projections from BloombergNEF (BNEF). In its New Energy Outlook 2019 (NEO), BNEF sees these technologies ensuring that – at least until 2030 – the power sector contributes its share toward keeping global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius.
Findings:
- Wind and solar make up almost 50% of world electricity in 2050 – “50 by 50” – and help put the power sector on track for 2 degrees to at least 2030.
- A 12TW expansion of generating capacity requires about $13.3 trillion of new investment between now and 2050 – 77% of which goes to renewables.
- Europe decarbonizes furthest, fastest. Coal-heavy China and gas-heavy U.S. play catch-up.
- Wind and solar are now cheapest across more than two-thirds of the world. By 2030 they undercut commissioned coal and gas almost everywhere.
- Consumer energy decisions such as rooftop solar and behind-the-meter batteries help shape an increasingly decentralized grid the world over.
- Batteries, gas peakers and dynamic demand help wind and solar reach more than 80% penetration in some markets.
- Coal continues to grow in Asia, but collapses everywhere else and peaks globally in 2026.
- Gas-fired power grows just 0.6% per year to 2050, supplying system back-up and flexibility rather than bulk electricity in most markets.
- Making heat and transport electric lowers emissions. The challenge is scale.
- To keep an electrified energy sector on a 2-degree trajectory, we will need to deploy additional zero-carbon technologies that are dispatchable and economic running at low capacity factors, or technology that can capture and sequester emissions at scale.
